Lesson 2
Playing with Probability
Lesson Narrative
The mathematical purpose of this lesson is to make connections to prior knowledge about probability and to use probability to interpret data. The work of this lesson connects to previous work because students learned about chance events and probability in previous grades. The work of this lesson connects to upcoming work because students will describe and use the sample space for chance experiments to calculate the probability of compound events. In the take turns activity, students trade roles explaining their thinking and listening, providing opportunities to explain their reasoning and critique the reasoning of others (MP3).
Learning Goals
Teacher Facing
 Describe (in writing) the sample space for chance experiments. Use the sample space to calculate the probability of compound events.
 Generate (in writing) and critique (orally) probability models that meet specific criterion.
Student Facing
 Let’s explore probability
Required Materials
Required Preparation
Prepare paper bags with cutup slips for the warmup. The paper bags should contain slips of paper with the names from the blackline master.
 Bag 1: Clare x3, Mai x5, Jada x7
 Bag 2: Andre x1, Diego x6, Elena x8
 Bag 3: Noah x10, Elena x3, Priya x2
 Bag 4: Clare x10, Mai x3, Jada x2
 Bag 5: Andre x9, Diego x4, Elena x2
One paper bag containing cutup slips of the letters in PIZZAPIZZA for the Teacher Lesson Synthesis.
Learning Targets
Student Facing
 I can find the sample space for chance experiments.
 I can model situations using probability.
 I can use sample space to calculate probability.
CCSS Standards
Glossary Entries

chance experiment
A chance experiment is something you can do over and over again, and you don’t know what will happen each time.
For example, each time you spin the spinner, it could land on red, yellow, blue, or green.

event
An event is a set of one or more outcomes in a chance experiment. For example, if we roll a number cube, there are six possible outcomes.
Examples of events are “rolling a number less than 3,” “rolling an even number,” or “rolling a 5.”

outcome
An outcome of a chance experiment is one of the things that can happen when you do the experiment. For example, the possible outcomes of tossing a coin are heads and tails.

probability
The probability of a chance event is a number from 0 to 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring, with 0 meaning it will never occur and 1 meaning it will always occur.

sample space
The sample space is the list of every possible outcome for a chance experiment.
For example, the sample space for tossing two coins is:
headsheads tailsheads headstails tailstails